On March 15th, 2021 the Institutions and State Working Group through the Center for African Studies had a seminar by Dr. Nicholas N. Kerr, UF. The title of his talk was: “Election Commissions & Opposition Behavior in Africa’s Multiparty Regimes: Does Institutional Performance Matter for Election Boycotts and Losers’ Compliance?” This talk was focused on a chapter from his book project titled: Election Commissions & Democratization in Africa, which will explore the consequences of performance election commissions (EC’s) on the behavior of political elites.
Dr. Kerr started this talk by sharing the 2017 Kenyan post-election judicial challenge with a photo of Raila Odinga, the Kenyan opposition leader who was celebrating the annulment of the 2017 presidential elections that year. He then mentioned what he would talk about regarding the electoral commissions and the role of autonomy. The role of these commissions in managing Election Day and registering constituents was mentioned. Also, Dr. Kerr gave the example of the electoral commission being a centralized body in Nigeria. In the book project, Dr. Kerr stated that the cases of electoral commissions and behavior of these political elites in Nigeria, Zimbabwe, Ghana, and Kenya would be discussed. Dr. Kerr then transitioned into sharing a graph of election boycotts that had taken place from 1989-2017 on the African continent.
Dr. Kerr shared the theory of de facto autonomy and capacity in EC and the participation of the opposition. He mapped out his data sources and the findings from the analysis of the data. The argument he makes is that: because of the centrality of ECs to the legitimacy of African elections, political elites have an incentive to monitor the de facto autonomy and capacity of the institution and incorporate this information when deciding whether 1) to boycott elections and 2) to challenge election results. Dr. Kerr spent time explaining the motivations, determinants and impacts of election boycotts. Dr. Kerr also spoke on the behavior of elites, uncertainties such as electoral fraud and administrative problems and why they matter.
Lastly, Dr. Kerr went through what he utilized for his sample and his use of V-dem method in coding EC autonomy and Capacity. He explained the regression, controls and robustness checks that he used with the sample. The results suggest that pre-election boycotts are more likely when ECs lack de facto autonomy, whereas EC de facto capacity is associated with a reduced likelihood of post-election challenges. These findings have implications for institutional theories by suggesting that the legitimacy of elections and regime processes in Africa are reflective of the performance of electoral governance institutions.
Dr. Kerr’s book contributes to the discourse on why there are EC in Africa, by highlighting both the autonomy and capacity of EC’s and exploring the consequences for both political elites and their citizens. He shared the summary that EC autonomy reduces boycotts, while EC capacity reduced boycotts when violence and fraud are low. The talk ended with questions and feedback from the audience about what Dr. Kerr had shared during this two-hour period.
Written by: Karen Awura-Adjoa Ronke Coker