Justin Hoyle is a third year PhD student in Political Science. Over the summer he spent a month in Cairo, Egypt conducting fieldwork for his dissertation project entitled “Determinants of Military Retrenchment: Army Behavior during Political Transitions.” This project addresses the question of why during transitional periods some political armies accept a reduced political role, or go back to the barracks entirely, while others intervene directly via coups. While in Egypt he conducted in-depth interviews with active and retired military personnel, as well as political activists and journalists with strong knowledge of the Egyptian military.
His major findings from his interviews with the military indicate a sense of national obligation and strong popular support as the primary reason for their direct intervention in 2013. Additionally, multiple officers cited President Mori’s failure to resign peacefully in the midst of massive public outcry as a major reason why they directly intervened in 2013, but not 2011 when former President Mubarak resigned under similar conditions. The major findings from interviews with non-military personnel relate to the expansion of Egyptian military control over the domestic economy since 2014. While the military has always played an important role in the Egyptian economy, Justin’s interviews revealed that this role has increased exponentially since General Sisi came to power. Thus, his sources indicate that the opportunity for the military to expand its economic interests was a motivating factor in the decision to overthrow President Morsi. Although the current repressive political atmosphere in Egypt at times made interview subjects (particularly non-military personnel) reluctant to participate in his study, Justin was ultimately able to gather substantive information on the Egyptian army which will prove valuable as he develops his prospectus.